American Turf Magazine
/ December-January 2015-2016
34
Trainer Handicapping (Part IV)
By Barry Meadow
T
he claiminggame is a good place
to discover who can train and
who can’t. When a trainer
claims a horse, what happens to the
horse? Does he improve, stay the same,
or go downhill?
When a trainer claims a horse, he
usually bases it on one of two supposi-
tions—that the horse is sound and will
do at the claimed level, or the horse can
be improved by making some changes.
At the very least, after a claim you
can be sure that the horse will be thor-
oughly checked, in much the same way
that a new homeowner will go through
every inch of his new purchase. Every-
thing from the horse’s dental treat-
ment to his training regimen will be
reviewed in a search for what is called
the horse’s “hole card.” This might
be anything from needing to have his
races spaced more widely, to adding
a goat to the stable, to changing the
type of bit. For handicappers, the best
claim is one by a good trainer from a
mediocre one. Often, the horse can
reverse a lifetime of dull form in just a
couple of weeks, at a big price, some-
times by simple things—changing ill-
fitting shoes, for instance.
The claiming game has often been
compared with poker, with conceal-
ment of the truth a major factor.
Let’s say a trainer claims a horse for
$20,000, then tries him once unsuc-
cessfully for $25,000, then drops him
in for $16,000. Is the trainer giving
up on the horse by dropping him so
quickly below the claimed price? Or is
he taking advantage of a dull effort in a
higher class to make the other trainers
think the horse isn’t doing so well?
Since it could be either case, the
sharpest trainers vary their patterns.
They dangle two horses as claim bait
by dropping them severely, both are
claimed away, and both go straight
downhill for the new connections
because the horses had problems.
Now the trainer drops a third horse—
only this time there’s nothing wrong
with the horse and he wins easily, then
jumps right back to his regular level.
The two horses that were damaged
goods scare off the other trainers, and
the trainer gets to steal a pot. Even
better, the next time he drops a horse,
his rivals are not sure how to proceed.
There are many windows through
which you can study trainers, and dif-
ferent services approach the subject
in different ways. Generally, the more
you pay the more you get—though the
more you get, the more confused you
might become. Every horse in every
race has a number of attributes, many
of which can be addressed by trainer
stats. An example:
Trainer Steve Stable enters Silver
Gentleman in a $12,500 claimer, a
dirt sprint. His odds are 6-1. He last
raced for $16,000 some 26 days ago at
1 1/16 miles. His jockey is Gary Good-
hands. Youmight look up any or all of
the following for Stable, on the basis of
the meeting, last 10 days, last 30 days,
last 60 days, last 6 months, last year,
last two years, or lifetime:
• His overall record at the current
meet.
• His record with claimers.
• His record with dirt starters.
• His record with dirt sprinters.
• His record with 6-1 shots.
• His record with one-level class drop-
pers.
• His record with horses laid off 21-30
days.
• His record with route-to-sprint
horses.
• His record with Goodhands in the
saddle.
• His record with this particular
owner.
• His return on investment for the last
year in various categories.
• His workout patterns with his other
winners.
• His workout patterns for this par-
ticular horse.
That’s just for starters. If the horse is
making his third start off a layoff, you
might want to check Stable’s record
there. If the horse is shipping from
another track, you might look at his
record with shippers. If it’s the horse’s
second race with lasix, first with blink-
ers, third after a claim--well, you can
envision the possibilities.
Even more confusing than the fact
that many stats are contradictory is
that a single win boosts the trainer’s
stats in dozens of categories. There’s
a serious redundancy problem in the
trainer-stat business. And how are we
to assess these overlaps?
How about if the trainer is wearing
his best suit today--is that an indication
that his horse is live? What if he enters
no horses for three weeks and suddenly
enters four on the same day? What if
Skeptical Handicapper
